Racing Selections and Handicapping

From the Observation Deck ...

The 2008 Belmont Stakes - June 7, 2008

Big Brown was our key horse in both the Derby and the Preakness and there seems to be little reason to change that for the Belmont. However, the entry of the Peter Pan (Grade 2) winner, Casino Drive, should add a little spice to this contest, largely due to his early speed capability and questions regarding the physical condition (i.e., sore hoof) of each.

WATT users who have handicapped the Belmont in the past know that winning at this distance usually requires the ability to run a Last Quarter of at least 130 at 1 1/8 miles or longer and a Late Speed number of at least 550. Only three in this field qualify - the first two mentioned, plus the long shot, Ready's Echo (#8), also in the Peter Pan (6 lengths behind the winner).

What makes this interesting is the amount of late speed in this contest. An early duel between the two pacesetters, #1 and #4, could help horses with some late speed capability - Denis of Cork (#3) and Icabad Crane (#9), for example.

This is a very unpredictable trifecta, and much depends on how #4 is ridden. If he's asked to challenge early, the others might have a better chance for place.

So, with all this uncertainty, make it Big Brown to win, Casino Drive for place, and Ready's Echo for show. However, to be honest, almost every colt in this race has an opportunity to be third.

Belmont Results:

What a disappointment for all horse racing fans!

Long shot Da' Tara (38 to 1) was the gate-to-wire victor while another long shot, Denis of Cork, ran second. The exacta paid a whopping $659. Our key horse, Big Brown, was pulled up late in the race, failing in his bid to win the first Triple Crown in 30 years. Casino Drive was a late scratch. Ready's Echo finished third ($3,954 trifecta) in a dead heat with Anak Nakal.

Looking for an excuse? Reflecting back, I would say Kent's allowing Da' Tara to get in front of him after leaving the gate and then riding up his backside was a bad move. There is an old saying that has some truth to it: "Jockeys don't win races, they lose 'em." In my opinion, the jockey was mostly to fault. Let's watch the Haskell at Monmouth on August 3. That could be telling...

With Casino Drive out, Da' Tara became one of the pacesetters, but the pace was still much slower than one would expect. The pace was 2:03.1 and the winning time was 2:29.3.

Despite these unexpected and disappointing events, the Winning at the Track program proved to be quite valuable (see the graphics and tables above).

Jeff Little, Publisher

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Attention WATT Users:

Do you want to see the Derby winners for the past 23 years? Download and install this WATT Race File into your TRACK folder...

DerbyWin.cd

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While waiting for the next big race, racing fans might enjoy this:

It's FREE ...

Two handicapping friends try to make their first big "score" at the track

Short Story

HorseRacingUSA Speed & Pace Basics

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Here is one of the better payoffs that I've seen lately. It isn't every day that my key horse pays $41.80 to win. This occurred at Calder on Sunday, May 5, 2008.

4th Race - #2 Red Hot Romance (Top PM-rated horse) 10 - 1 Morning Line
$41.80 win $16.40 place $9.80 show

Jeff Little, Publisher

Below are two of the more extraordinary e-mails I've received recently. Great performances such as these are, of course, outside of the norm, but I thought I'd share them with you anyway ... These unsolicited notes are for real.

Subject: Big Payoffs at Hollywood
Date: Tue, 11 Dec 2007 11:37 EDT
From: YYY@netzero.net

To: JBLittle@BellSouth.net

Jeff:

If you are looking for a free advertisement for the Winning at the Track program you need to look no further than Hollywood Park on 12-9-07. Using the Best-4 PM ratings in each race your program nailed a cold exacta in the 7th that paid $721.00 for a $1.00 exacta. The winner paid $110.00 to win and was the top PM choice in that race with 30:1 morning line odds.

While meager in comparison, the program also had an exacta box with the top two PM choices in the 3rd race that paid $111.00 for a $1.00 exacta. This was despite a 7 horse field. WOW !!!!

Terry YYY

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Subject: MNR 8-14
Date: Tue, 15 Aug 2006 26:13 EDT
From: XXX@aol.com

To: JBLittle@BellSouth.net

Hi Jeff.

I have been playing Mountaineer since retiring in Iowa. I just thought I'd let you know that I cleared $2682 today. Win and place bets along with exacta's and tri's.

I have never had a losing day since using your program.

Thanks!

Tom XXX

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